iRob

I have some questions about this:

The Urban Institute, a research organization based in Washington, has released an interesting report that suggests that the proliferation of iPods helps account for the nationwide rise in violent crime in 2005 and 2006.

The report notes that nationally, violent crime fell every year from 1993 to 2004, before rising in 2005 and 2006, just as “America’s streets filled with millions of people visibly wearing, and being distracted by, expensive electronic gear.”

Of course, as any social scientist will tell you, correlation and causation are not the same thing.

The report’s authors, John Roman and Aaron Chalfin, acknowledge in the report that “rigorous empirical tests” of any theory for the two-year-old rise in violent crime “are not possible.” But they offer three tantalizing observations.

First, the recent increase in robbery has been disproportionately greater than increases in other economically motivated crimes, such as theft and burglary.

Second, the recent increase in robbery has been greatest among juvenile offenders, among whom iPods “are highly valued as a status symbol.”

Third, robberies increased in particular from 2004 to 2006, the very period when iPods entered the mass market and became ubiquitous among consumers.

I admit, I have yet to read the report, but two questions immediately spring to mind. The first is, is there perhaps a demographic reason for the increase in crime? For example, declines in the crime rate in the 1990s were largely attributable to a decline in the overall number of people who were of prime crime-committing age (teens and 20s) at that time.

I would also ask if there were similar increases in crime rates when, say, the Sony Walkman was introduced in the late 1970s. Or the mobile phone, for that matter. (In the early 90s, whenever Steven's parents visited him and Amy in Brooklyn and left their carphone--they were early adopters--in full view on the seat, the car was broken into and the phone stolen.)

I'm willing to concede there may be some causation in the proliferation of the iPod and an increase in crime, but I think there needs to be more rigorous investigation. Plus, I'm not sure that finding any significant connection really tells us anything we don't already know. Hmm...hot, hip, electronic consumer items are likely to be stolen. Huh. Who would have guessed?