Cable Talk

A write up in Ad Age of a major meeting of the cable television industry (unfortunately titled "The Thrilla in Phila"--sorry, but here in Saratoga, "Phila Street" is pronounced with a long "i" so the rhyme doesn't work, assuming it did anyway) seems to indicate that what's happening with television vis-a-vis advertising is taking a smiliar course as the magazine publishing industry. In print publishing, latent and long-festering advertiser skepticism of circulation figures has led to a surge of interest in online advertising, if for no other reason than the metrics are precise, and advertisers can see for themselves how many hits a Web page gets, how many click-throughs an ad yields, and so forth, rather than relying on a publisher's probably over-optimistic estimates of readership and pass-along copies.

Now, TV folks come right out and say it: the metrics for measuring TV ratings, frankly, suck. (I could have told them that, ever since they canceled Manimal.)

Anyway, they seem to anticipate the major changes that are ahead for the cable industry and TV in general--wait until it all becomes video on demand delivered over some cable/Internet hybrid. First VCRs and now TiVo-like objects have sown the seeds for the death of the "time slot." I fully expect in a few years TV shows won't be watched "live" or at predetermined times, but rather will be stored on a server somewhere and downloaded at the viewer's leisure. We're halfway there already: two (perhaps the only two) contemporary programs that I like (Six Feet Under and Arrested Development) I have never watched in an "original" airtime (I don't even know when they're on)--I rent the DVDs when they come out and watch them when I want. It would be enormously convenient for me to be able to just access them from a server somewhere rather than schlep up to the Drive-In Movie Store. I fully expect this will be the future. I also expect that live streaming of programs will become common, too. I seem to recall that the NCAA had several packages of Internet-based Webcasts of last March's basketball finals. Sure beats paying for cable TV. And if they could make available some kind of Dick Vitale blocking software, that would be an added bonus.

In a recent report of the future of media usage, some consultants and I referred to this whole concept as the emerging "whatever, whenever consumer experience." People will increasngly expect and demand whatever content they want to be delivered when they want it delivered. And they will seek it from whatever company can provide that experience. If it becomes cable, great for cable. But look at what's happening with satellite radio (XM is losing less money than ever!)--is "satellite TV" (not to be confused with DirectTV and that lot) far behind?